Lula\u2019s victory will stave off US meddling for now, but Bolsonaro\u2019s camp and foreign pressure remain powerful forces in the struggle ahead<\/p>\n
In Brazil, the incumbent left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva \u2013 known simply as Lula \u2013 has decisively won a dramatic run-off election against his challenger from the right \u2013 and US favorite \u2013 Flavio Bolsonaro. As his de facto sponsor, US President Donald Trump, has signaled that he won\u2019t openly intervene, Bolsonaro, after initially refusing to concede, had to effectively accept the result.
\nA result that we can call historic even now. In terms of the domestic politics of Brazil, it confirms Lula as a master politician and major statesman. Heading into his fourth term, he has defied his age as well as vicious American attempts to undermine him by economic warfare, sanctions, and social-media foul play.
\nLula has also broken the traditional patterns of Brazilian presidential elections. Before he won the second round, he lost the first one; a comeback victory had never happened before and seemed improbable. Now, thanks to a rapid revamping of his campaign, including a belated discovery of social media, and a surge in voter mobilization across the whole country, Lula is the first one to pull it off.
\nFor Brazil, this was a fateful election that could have turned fatal. If Bolsonaro had won, the country would certainly have lost its sovereignty to a policy of enthusiastic subordination to America\u2019s Donroe Doctrine. What has been imposed by violence and treason on Venezuela would have been achieved by elections under pressure in Brazil. It would have joined the recent Latin American shift to the right and deeper submission to Washington.<\/p>\n
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Lula defeats Trump ally in Brazil\u2019s presidential election: As it happened<\/p>\n
It is almost as certain that Flavio Bolsonaro would also have found ways to end democracy at home. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, already tried. No member of the powerful Bolsonaro clan has ever uttered a word of regret for Bolsonaro\u2019s proven coup attempt. On the contrary, Flavio and his now US-based brother, Eduardo, have been out for revenge. Add Flavio\u2019s nasty reputation of connections to organized crime and even death squads, acknowledged even by the reliably right-wing Economist, and his victory could have spelled doom for many Brazilians.
\nMany bullets \u2013 some quite literal \u2013 were dodged. Yet surviving danger is different from conclusive victory. This has not happened. Lula\u2019s victory is solid, outdistancing Bolsonaro by well over three percentage points, but this does not change the fact that the latter still won over 48% of the vote. Bolsonarism has been defeated but not crushed.
\nThe same holds true for the biggest and most dangerous ally of the Bolsonaro clan, Washington. There is no doubt that the US has suffered a setback, most of all in geopolitical terms. Its project to lock Latin America into the cage of Donroe Doctrine imperialism has taken a hit.
\nAnd that hit is painful, for Brazil is Washington\u2019s central target in South America. By location, size, demography, and economic performance, as well as potential, Brazil is so important that no revamped American \u2018backyard\u2019 empire will ever be complete without it.<\/p>\n
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Trump suggests Brazil election was rigged (VIDEO)<\/p>\n
Consider a few basic indicators. According to the World Bank, Brazil has a population of 213 million, which makes it the seventh-most-populous country in the world. It is also thoroughly urbanized, with almost 90%\u00a0of the population living in towns and cities. It is technologically advanced, with almost 93% of Brazilians having access to at least 3G and almost 85% using the internet.
\nEconomic metrics are notoriously tricky and difficult to compare, but Brazil clearly has the largest economy in South America. Globally, it also ranks high. The International Monetary Fund projects its 2026 GDP\u00a0(adjusted for purchasing power) to reach almost $5.3 trillion, which makes it the eight-largest national economy in the world, leaving behind, for instance, the UK, France, South Korea, and closer to home, Mexico.
\nBrazil also has substantial reserves of crude oil and is the single biggest oil producer in South America. Bringing these riches under US control and adding them to what Washington is currently trying to loot from Venezuela would have been a wet dream for both American geostrategists and business. Especially as around half of Brazil\u2019s oil production is currently being sold to China, America\u2019s most feared rival.
\nMore importantly, China is Brazil\u2019s most important trade partner by far. Chinese-Brazilian trade is at record levels and growing, while Brazil is the top destination for Chinese foreign direct investment. The Donroe Doctrine was designed not just to restore US domination in Latin America, but specifically to keep China out.<\/p>\n
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Brazil election meddling: The stakes could not be higher<\/p>\n
And if all of the above is not irritating enough for the hemispheric empire fans in Washington, Brazil is also a major power in the realm of critical minerals. Indeed, according to American data, Brazil\u2019s reserves of critical minerals rank second behind China and far outdistance those of runners-up, such as India and Australia, not to mention the US itself.
\nAdd to this the fact that Lula\u2019s Brazil has also been a main player in BRICS, the projects of multipolarity and dethroning the dollar, and the resistance to Israel and its crimes, including genocide against the Palestinians, and Washington could not be more eager to subdue this giant thorn in what it considers its southern underbelly.
\nWhat a prize to win! And to lose. For now, the US has lost. But precisely because Brazil is so crucial, Washington will not give up. On the contrary, the strong showing of its favorite, Flavio Bolsonaro, and the fact that his party will dominate the Brazilian Congress, will only harden America\u2019s resolve, with numerous opportunities to sow division, subversion, and dirty regime-change tricks yet to be exploited.
\nBrazil has won a vital reprieve. But the struggle is not over. The empire will strike back. It always does. This means that Lula and his domestic allies will have to continue and broaden the modernization of their approach that started during the second round, for instance, by pursuing a consistent policy of securing Brazilian sovereignty in the social media sphere. It also means that Brazil\u2019s friends in the world, especially those equally invested in the project of multipolarity, such as China and Russia, must think very hard about how to support Brazil more against US pressure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Lula\u2019s victory will stave off US meddling for now, but Bolsonaro\u2019s camp and foreign pressure remain powerful forces in the struggle ahead In Brazil, the incumbent left-wing president, Luiz Inacio…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40608,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t