As the economy falters and winter approaches, Kiev\u2019s commitment to its Western backers leaves little room for peace<\/p>\n
Washington is pushing for an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. Kiev supports the initiative, and Moscow has also responded favorably. Another round of shuttle diplomacy has taken place: US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, and a special representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to the US for talks with his American counterparts. Work is underway to revive the trilateral negotiation format involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US.
\nJudging by these and other news reports, one might get the impression that things are moving toward a diplomatic breakthrough and a truce between Russia and Ukraine.\u00a0However, this impression is deceptive: A closer analysis reveals that the positions of the parties have not changed over the past year. On the contrary, Ukraine\u2019s worsening situation has hardened its resolve to fight to the bitter end.
\nUp the down staircase
\nIn spring 2025, Ukraine, with the backing of its European allies, launched a major campaign for a ceasefire. The expectation was that Trump would force Putin to accept the terms imposed by Europe and Ukraine, freezing the hostilities along the line of contact without any preconditions.
\nA truce would have cemented Ukraine\u2019s defeat in the conflict. However, Russia\u2019s primary objective would not have been achieved: The anti-Russian regime in Kiev would remain in place, and Ukraine would retain its role as a Western foothold against Russia. A temporary truce would allow Ukraine to recover and prepare for revenge in the future. A year ago, despite major issues, Ukraine still functioned: The remnants of the civilian economy operated, and despite considerable disruptions, steel and agricultural production (two of the country\u2019s main export sectors) continued.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
An act of desperation: Russian experts respond to Zelensky\u2019s threats to civil aviation<\/p>\n
Without Western financial aid, Ukraine would have already faced a financial catastrophe; however, it continued to exist. Despite occasional disruptions, major industrial facilities remained operational, as did the small and medium-sized businesses that supported them \u2013 suppliers, transport companies, various outsourced services, construction and repair crews, and so on. Cafes, restaurants, the telecommunications sector, and small businesses stayed open. Ukraine\u2019s robust logistics sector remained active. The government collected taxes from all these businesses.
\nHowever, in spring 2026, Ukraine decided to force Russia to conclude a truce by starting a \u2018war on cities\u2019 \u2013 large-scale strikes on the Russian rear. It first targeted oil refining and export facilities, and then the civilian sector, including the warehouses of companies such as Wildberries and Ozon.
\nThe worst possible moment
\nEscalation only makes sense when \u2018escalation dominance\u2019 can be maintained. Otherwise, the outcome will be detrimental to the party that started the escalation. That is exactly what happened: In response to Ukraine\u2019s attacks, Russia launched a broad offensive against Ukraine\u2019s civilian sector.
\nFrom the start of the conflict, Ukraine has not concealed the fact that it uses civilian logistics infrastructure to transport military cargo. Launchers for long-range drones targeting Russia have often been hidden under the guise of civilian trucks.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Ukraine tried to copy Russia\u2019s battlefield tactics \u2013 and walked into a trap<\/p>\n
Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea oil and grain exports gave Russia a pretext to respond in kind and effectively block Ukraine\u2019s shipping in the Black Sea. As with strikes on warehouses, Russia maintained the upper hand in the escalation. There are several reasons for this: Russia\u2019s increased firepower, the depletion of Ukrainian air defenses, and more broadly, Ukraine\u2019s smaller size, its lack of strategic geographic depth, and fewer targets within the country. While the \u2018war on cities\u2019 affected Russia as well, Ukrainian strikes did not cause the same amount of damage.\u00a0
\nAll this prompted Zelensky to propose a truce. What he actually proposed was returning to the way things were before this year\u2019s escalation, and pretending like it never happened.\u00a0But does he really want a truce? It may look that way. After all, the Ukrainian economy \u2013 and consequently the Ukrainian state itself\u00a0\u2013 is beginning to disintegrate; Ukraine\u2019s key exports \u2013 its only source of revenue aside from foreign aid \u2013 have been effectively destroyed. For the first time in history, steel production in Ukraine has come to a complete halt; restarting it would take months if not years. By all accounts, the country is facing the most difficult winter yet. If this is not grounds for making political concessions, then what is?
\nThe only available option\u00a0
\nZelensky\u2019s calls for a truce are accompanied by opposing statements. One moment, he demands a \u201cwinter package\u201d of weapons from Trump; the next, he declares that the war will not end until Crimea is \u201cliberated.\u201d Domestically, he is intensifying the crackdown on the Russian language and the Orthodox Church, even though this only heightens tensions within Ukrainian society. Clearly, given these parameters, Russia will never agree to a ceasefire. So is it all just schizophrenia or a calculated move?
\nI\u2019d say it\u2019s the latter. It\u2019s true that if we consider Zelensky as the leader of Ukraine, then his actions are insane and amount to suicide. However, if one views him as the military proxy of Europe\u2019s anti-Russia coalition, then everything falls into place.
\nFor Zelensky and his regime, Ukraine is not their own land; it is a resource and an instrument for war against Russia. To save Ukraine, Zelensky must accept Russia\u2019s terms. Yet Ukraine\u2019s masters cannot accept Russia\u2019s terms, as that would mean a crushing defeat for them.Consequently, the war must go on. If the destruction of rear-area logistics and energy infrastructure does not affect the ability of the Ukrainian army to hold the front line, then logistics and energy don\u2019t matter. Of course, left without electricity, heat, and jobs, Ukraine\u2019s civilian population will endure great suffering \u2013 but Zelensky doesn\u2019t care about that.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Ukraine at 35: The view from Russia<\/p>\n
Taking this logic into account, even an energy truce is bad for Ukraine, as a moratorium on mutual strikes would deprive Kiev \u2013 or rather, its masters \u2013 of the only effective leverage over Moscow.Of course, this is a one-way street. In an earlier article, we analyzed how the Ukrainian state is becoming detached from its own society. Today, I\u2019d like to point out that in its current form, the Kiev regime has no other options: On one side of the scale lies the fate of Ukraine, and on the other, the interests of its masters. Zelensky has no real choice. In the interests of its masters, Ukraine must sacrifice itself and inflict the greatest possible damage on Russia, or if possible, even defeat it.\u00a0
\nAs long as there remains hope for Russia\u2019s defeat, nothing else matters. Ukraine wants to either freeze the conflict along the line of contact and prepare to take revenge later, or fight to the bitter end. Russia understands this very well; that is why it has once again rejected any idea of a partial truce \u2013 this was recently expressed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the UN, and then by Putin. Even though this year, Russia was seriously affected by Ukrainian strikes, Moscow is only open to ending the conflict on its own terms.
\n***
\nWhat comes next? Both sides are actively preparing for the winter campaign, and it appears that, for the first time since the start of the conflict, long-range air strikes (the war on cities) will become the primary theater of operations. Moscow is confident that the Ukrainian army cannot inflict strategic damage on Russia; consequently, its only option is to maintain escalation dominance by responding to the Ukrainian strikes with even more powerful attacks.\u00a0Under these circumstances, there can be no talk of either an energy truce or freezing the conflict along the line of contact.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As the economy falters and winter approaches, Kiev\u2019s commitment to its Western backers leaves little room for peace Washington is pushing for an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. Kiev…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":39020,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t