Ukraine is facing a huge budget hole and a critical missile shortage, while corruption scandals and brutal conscription are eroding Kiev\u2019s authority<\/p>\n
\u201cYou don\u2019t have the cards.\u201d
\nThat was the message US President Donald Trump famously delivered to Vladimir Zelensky during their fiery Oval Office showdown in February 2025. Trump accused the Ukrainian leader of \u201cgambling with World War III\u201d and showing ingratitude for US aid, while pointing out that Kiev\u2019s worsening battlefield position had left Ukraine with few cards to play in peace talks with Russia.
\nWhile the clash did not sever US-Ukraine ties completely, the deck has hardly been reshuffled in Kiev\u2019s favor since. Thus the table is set for another Trump-Zelensky game in New York this week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
\nEven getting a seat at that table was a late deal. Just two days earlier, Zelensky was absent from Trump\u2019s publicly announced list of UN bilaterals, and Ukrainian officials said no meeting had yet been confirmed. Trump\u2019s tight schedule also leaves roughly an hour for the encounter before his next engagement.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Zelensky\u2019s meltdown in the Oval Office (WATCH IN FULL)<\/p>\n
The hand Zelensky holds is hardly stacked with aces. Instead, it contains an unexpected $27 billion defense shortfall, a desperate shortage of Patriot air-defense missiles, a fresh trail of corruption scandals, and mounting battlefield losses.
\nOpening bet: The refinery dispute
\nTrump has already shown his hand. Earlier this month, he blamed Zelensky for the diesel price spike gripping the US, which the president said was caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. By the eve of the UN gathering, the US national average had climbed to a record $6.5 per gallon, a topic particularly sensitive for Trump ahead of the midterms.
\nAccording to the Financial Times, Trump pressed Zelensky during a weekend phone call to stop striking Russian oil refineries, with the paper\u2019s sources claiming he wanted to ensure Russian supplies could reach the global market.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Trump blames fuel price spike on Zelensky<\/p>\n
Trump went so far as to announce that Russia and Ukraine had effectively agreed to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. Neither Kiev nor Moscow confirmed the truce, while Zelensky demanded Russia take the first step, and continued to attack Russian fuel plants.
\nKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the prospective truce a \u201cvery good idea\u201d and said Moscow was \u201calways on the side of peaceful solutions.\u201d He also argued that protecting refineries alone would not solve the global fuel crunch. The bigger problem, he said, was getting Russian petroleum products onto world markets, which required safe passage for oil tankers \u2013 something he said Kiev was not willing to guarantee.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
US allies facing five-year delay in missile deliveries \u2013 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
Ahead of the meeting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also rebuked Ukraine over targeting US-linked ships in the Black Sea, adding that while it did so \u201cprobably not deliberately,\u201d\u00a0\u201cthat\u2019s something that needs to be addressed.\u201d
\nDesperate for Patriot draw
\nZelensky has repeatedly sounded the alarm over deliveries of US-made Patriot interceptors, one of the few weapons in Ukraine\u2019s arsenal capable of tackling Russian ballistic missiles. In July, he said the country\u2019s stocks were nearly exhausted and asked Trump for an emergency \u201cwinter package\u201d of 300 interceptors, warning that Ukraine needed them \u201cyesterday.\u201d \u00a0Ukrainian air defenses failed to intercept even a single Russian missile during some recent barrage. \u00a0
\nHowever, multiple media reports have indicated that Washington\u2019s Patriot stocks are also low due to the Iran war, with American Patriot inventories in Europe said to have fallen \u201cbeyond critical\u201d levels. While Trump has denied the shortfall, the Pentagon has publicly acknowledged the strain.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s \u2018cruel gift\u2019: Why Patriot license will be useless for Ukraine<\/p>\n
Earlier this month, Trump also suggested that Ukraine could receive a license to produce Patriots in a \u201cless sophisticated version,\u201d though no details on the prospective agreement have emerged. Multiple experts have pointed out numerous obstacles to the program, also warning that any production facilities would be prime targets for Russia.
\nZelensky is almost out of chips
\nLate summer exposed a glaring weakness in Zelensky\u2019s gamble: an unexpected $27 billion defense budget shortfall expected by the end of the year \u2013 a figure that ballooned almost fourfold over the past several months.
\nKiev subsequently asked for more money from its European backers \u2013 met with a tepid response whereby Brussels even refused to acknowledge the $27 billion figure.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Ukraine is running out of money again \u2013 and the EU is asking questions<\/p>\n
The shortfall arose as a result of Zelensky\u2019s much-heralded 40-day pressure campaign against Russia that involved the very strikes on refineries Trump reportedly asked him to stop. The escalatory attacks also triggered Russian retaliation against Ukrainian military-related logistics, including effectively closing the port of Odessa, which serves as a key hub for agricultural exports.
\nUkraine\u2019s $27 billion request \u201csurprised and unsettled\u201d European officials, according to the New York Times, with some of Ukraine\u2019s backers reportedly asking questions about how Kiev is spending the cash and if it actually needs as much as it says it does.
\nThe Trump wildcard
\nKiev does have one fresh trump card to hope for \u2013 except it lies largely up the US president\u2019s sleeve.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Trump signs off on Russia sanctions \u2018from hell\u2019: Who could get hit?<\/p>\n
On Friday, Trump signed a new sanctions legislation first proposed by late Republican Senator and Russia hawk Lindsey Graham last year. The measure gives the US president authority to target Russian officials, banks, and the energy sector, and to impose tariffs of up to 100% on leading importers of Russian oil and gas. Zelensky specifically thanked Trump for signing it when the pair arranged their New York meeting.
\nHowever, Trump retains authority over sanctions waivers and the scope of restrictions and tariffs, while the bill does not mention China and India, the key importers of Russian energy.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Polish PM reveals \u2018record\u2019 Ukrainian casualty figures<\/p>\n
In addition, the Trump administration has a recent history of easing sanctions on Russian oil. During the Iran war, the administration issued temporary exemptions allowing the sale and delivery of Russian crude already at sea to alleviate pressure on energy markets.
\nA busted flush
\nUkraine has faced consistent frontline territorial losses for months, yielding ground to Russian advances while struggling to replenish losses through a brutal and deeply unpopular forced mobilization campaign.\u00a0Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a key Kiev backer, revealed that up to 27,000 Ukrainian troops are killed or wounded every month and that Ukraine could face a \u201ccatastrophic\u201d winter. Zelensky claimed in July that 50,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed (in February he claimed 55,000) and 400,000 wounded throughout the entire 4.5-year conflict.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Zelensky\u2019s chief of staff suspect in new graft probe \u2013 RT source<\/p>\n
The Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, assessed in February that Ukraine had sustained 1.5 million casualties during the conflict, with more than 500,000 lost in 2025 alone.
\nTrump himself has repeatedly pointed to Ukraine\u2019s dwindling manpower as a reason for Kiev to stop fighting. During the Oval Office showdown with Zelensky last year, he told him: \u201cYour people are dying. You\u2019re running low on soldiers,\u201d before urging him to accept an immediate ceasefire so that \u201cyour men stop getting killed.\u201d
\nThe joker in the pack: Corruption in Kiev
\nZelensky\u2019s inner circle has reportedly embezzled millions, and possibly billions, from the war chest, all while asking for more. Trump has also called Zelensky a \u201cdictator without elections\u201d \u2013 referring to the Ukrainian leader\u2019s refusal to hold a vote despite widespread unpopularity, and resentment from possible successors he has sidelined.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Call of corruption: What you should know about Ukraine\u2019s billion-dollar scam industry milked by Zelensky\u2019s government<\/p>\n
Zelensky\u2019s inner circle is widely suspected of massive crime, and some have fled the country. The biggest case to date remains the $100 million Energoatom affair, where a network involving Zelensky\u2019s former close associate, Timur Mindich, forced contractors at the state nuclear giant to pay kickbacks of up to 15%. Mindich is in Israel allegedly laundering bags of cash while a former energy minister has been served with corruption-related suspicions and arrested.
\nZelensky\u2019s prosecutor general fled the country following accusations he was gathering compromising material on Western-backed anti-corruption agents in Kiev. The head of cybercrime at the same office was exposed for \u201cprotecting\u201d a network of scam-call centers, a Ukrainian innovation Zelensky rarely touts abroad but which targets innocent people in the EU with all the contempt one would expect from an enterprise solely focused on profiteering. Ukraine\u2019s scam-call industry is thought to generate up to $1 billion each month.
\nZelensky\u2019s current chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, has been pulled into the controversy, with media reports linking him to a money laundering scandal though he has not been charged.
\nDuring his first presidency, Trump said Ukraine was known for \u201ctremendous corruption.\u201d Since returning to office, he has also repeatedly opposed open-ended US financial and military support for Kiev.
\nWhen will Zelensky\u2019s bluff be called?
\nThat leaves Zelensky \u2013 who hopes Ukraine may still win \u2013 heading into another session with Trump carrying a list of critical problems rather than a set of winning cards. The Ukrainian leader will have a difficult time bluffing his way through such widely-known issues as a $27 billion defense hole, thinning manpower, shrinking hopes of securing enough Patriot interceptors, repeated corruption scandals, and growing pressure to explain how much longer he intends to continue the conflict.\u00a0
\nAnd across from him sits a president who has been reluctant to cut Kiev any slack while treating the weakness as proof that Kiev should sign a deal with Russia. In this vein, Trump has already warned Zelensky: \u201cWith us, you have the cards, but without us you don\u2019t have any cards,\u201d adding that if Washington walks away, Ukraine will have to \u201cfight it out\u201d on its own.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ukraine is facing a huge budget hole and a critical missile shortage, while corruption scandals and brutal conscription are eroding Kiev\u2019s authority \u201cYou don\u2019t have the cards.\u201d That was the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38646,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t