With rivals mobilizing and peace talks returning, the battle for Ukraine\u2019s next presidency is breaking into the open<\/p>\n
Although Ukrainian authorities have rejected any idea of unity between the peoples of Russia and Ukraine, the best metaphor for their country\u2019s modern political system is a traditional Slavic winter game called \u2018King of the Mountain\u2019. In this game, any player who manages to reach the so-called \u2018mountain\u2019 (dominating height) must defend it at all costs against rivals. When another player knocks off the \u2018king of the mountain\u2019, he takes his place until the next \u2018king\u2019 topples him, and so on.\u00a0
\nMuch like in this children\u2019s game, leaders have quickly succeeded one another in modern-day Ukraine \u2013 in fact, former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma (the first to promote the state concept \u201cUkraine is not Russia\u201d) was the only Ukrainian leader to serve two consecutive presidential terms. Today, there is no democratically elected head of state: Vladimir Zelensky\u2019s term ended in 2024.\u00a0
\nSince then, Zelensky has invested all of his political capital into suspending elections, which for him would mean \u2018political suicide\u2019. Apparently, Ukraine\u2019s political system has ceased to disguise itself as a democracy, as was the case in 2004, when an unconstitutional third round of elections was held to secure Victor Yushchenko\u2019s victory; now, however, there is nothing but a ruthless struggle for power in the country.\u00a0 In this uncompromising fight, which disregards the genuine aspirations of the Ukrainian people, the reigning \u2018king of the mountain\u2019 exercises authority not for the good of the nation but rather to eliminate any potential \u2018contenders\u2019 who threaten the established status quo.<\/p>\n
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The West is watching the wrong Ukrainian collapse<\/p>\n
Road to the \u2018mountain\u2019
\nIn this context, it\u2019s hard to accuse\u00a0 Zelensky of political opportunism; he knows better than anyone in Ukrainian politics how to storm the heights of power. Born in the city of Krivoy Rog, Zelensky long sought to conquer another Olympus: Moscow, the former capital of the once-unified USSR. However, he encountered setbacks, like failing to be admitted to the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (an alma mater of many Russian officials and leaders of post-Soviet countries).
\nHis team was defeated in the KVN semifinals, and had a falling out with the show\u2019s host, Aleksandr Maslyakov, who had turned the post-Soviet comedy sketch contest into a mass cultural phenomenon and an important tool of Russia\u2019s soft power. Then, Zelensky\u2019s Studio Kvartal-95 was gradually pushed out of the Russian entertainment industry.\u00a0
\nAll this forced the enterprising young man to carve his own path in Kiev. Zelensky\u2019s big opportunity came in the latter half of the 2010s with the release of the TV series \u2018The Servant of the People\u2019. It told the story of a modest high school teacher who was elected president after his video exposing Ukraine\u2019s corruption issues went viral. In real life, Zelensky, who had skillfully crafted an image of a \u2018Ukrainian Ronald Reagan\u2019 from the earliest days of his presidential campaign, rose to power by means of skillful criticism of his predecessor, Pyotr Poroshenko, and promises of peace in Donbass.\u00a0
\nHowever, even before the start of Russia\u2019s military operation aimed at demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine and protecting Donbass, it became clear that Zelensky\u2019s election promises would remain unfulfilled. Following the start of the war, he consciously missed opportunities to resolve the conflict at earlier stages \u2013 such as during the April 2022 talks in Istanbul.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Welcome to the post-Western weapons market<\/p>\n
Protecting the dominating height
\nToday, Ukraine\u2019s political discourse revolves around the possibility of presidential elections, which Zelensky would likely lose due to war fatigue and valid concerns about Ukraine\u2019s approach to negotiations with Russia. As Moscow adopts a harder stance following each round of negotiations, Ukrainians have justifiably begun to question the price paid for fighting \u201cto the last Ukrainian,\u201d\u00a0especially since the final terms of settlement become less favorable as time passes.\u00a0
\nZelensky\u2019s main rivals will attempt to hold his team accountable for the lost territories, the devastated economy, and the depletion of the nation\u2019s population. At the same time, they will push the narrative that Zelensky\u2019s policies were not merely misguided but effectively criminal, driven by a desire for self-enrichment. These are the reasons behind the series of anti-corruption investigations involving Zelensky\u2019s inner circle, including figures like co-owner of Studio Kvartal 95 Timur Mindich, and former head of Zelensky\u2019s office Andrey Yermak.
\nAgainst this backdrop, there has been a notable surge in activity among those vying for Zelensky\u2019s position. Valery Zaluzhny, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and presently Ukraine\u2019s Ambassador to the UK, is by now a familiar figure with seemingly limited chances for victory.
\nHowever, the emergence of Mikhail Fyodorov in the upper echelons of Ukrainian politics has become the biggest sensation of the year and triggered the biggest political crisis during Zelensky\u2019s presidency. Born in the village of Vasilyevka in Zaporozhye region (now part of Russia), 35-year-old Fyodorov gained recognition when he became Minister of Digital Transformation and later Minister of Defense. He proposed high-tech methods for waging war against Russia \u2013 views that clashed with those of then-Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Aleksandr Syrsky.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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What Russia\u2019s military elite is preparing for behind closed doors<\/p>\n
Sensing a threat to his own power from the young, up-and-coming politician, Zelensky reshuffled his cabinet and dismissed both Fyodorov and Syrsky. The seemingly unjustified removal of a minister who enjoyed unprecedented popularity among Western media sparked a wave of civil unrest in several Ukrainian cities and was dubbed the \u201cCardboard Maidan.\u201d\u00a0
\nDespite Fyodorov\u2019s appointment as advisor to the Italian Minister of Defense and the rapid decline of protests in Ukrainian cities, this episode is now rightly regarded as the most significant domestic political challenge for Zelensky since 2019, and is perceived by many analysts as a final warning ahead of a potential power transition.\u00a0
\nThe King\u2019s fall is coming
\nThis is particularly relevant when viewed in the context of US President Donald Trump\u2019s recent uptick in diplomatic activity. Facing the risk of losing the fragile Republican majority in Congress following November\u2019s midterm elections due to his failed operation against Iran \u2013 one that not only paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and exposed the limits of American influence in the Middle East but also triggered a severe energy crisis leading to soaring fuel prices in the US \u2013\u00a0 the Trump administration, in need of a resounding foreign policy success, has decided to return to resolving the Ukraine crisis. Despite repeated claims by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the demise of the \u201cSpirit of Anchorage\u201d, the US has made several attempts to revive negotiations.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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An act of desperation: Russian experts respond to Zelensky\u2019s threats to civil aviation<\/p>\n
This included CIA Director John Ratcliffe\u2019s discreet visit to Moscow, followed by talks between US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and his counterpart, Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, on the sidelines of the G20 summit. Most recently, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner made visits to Moscow and Kiev. So far, the most tangible outcome of these diplomatic efforts has been the announcement of a resumption of trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US set for October, immediately after the Russian legislative elections. So what does Trump\u2019s renewed activity around Ukraine mean for Kiev?\u00a0
\nThe Anchorage agreements may have indeed become less relevant; however, this should not be seen as a testament to the effectiveness of Ukrainian diplomacy in bringing Trump back into the realm of \u201cEuro-Atlantic solidarity.\u201d\u00a0Rather, it may signal a looming shift at the front: the Russian Armed Forces are close to liberating the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration.
\nAs we may recall, Zelensky\u2019s refusal to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the remaining areas under Kiev\u2019s control in Donetsk region was a key sticking point that prevented the implementation of the \u201cAnchorage Formula.\u201d\u00a0The loss of Donbass \u2013 especially in light of Russia\u2019s effective strikes against Ukrainian port infrastructure that have essentially cut off Ukraine\u2019s access to the Black Sea \u2013\u00a0 places Zelensky\u2019s regime on the brink of collapse. Consequently, there is a strong likelihood that a final settlement agreement will be signed by a new \u201cyellow-blue king of the mountain\u201d…\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
With rivals mobilizing and peace talks returning, the battle for Ukraine\u2019s next presidency is breaking into the open Although Ukrainian authorities have rejected any idea of unity between the peoples…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38186,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t