The UAE says its decision is driven by \u201cnational interests\u201d as Middle East tensions disrupt energy markets<\/p>\n
The United Arab Emirates, one of the world\u2019s biggest oil exporters, has announced it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ on May 1. The move is seen by analysts as a serious setback for the group and its informal leader, Saudi Arabia.\u00a0
\nThe decision comes amid a crisis in the Middle East triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has disrupted crude flows from the Persian Gulf.\u00a0Shipments have been choked by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 a narrow waterway off the UAE\u2019s coast that normally carries about a fifth of the world\u2019s crude.<\/p>\n
Why did it happen?\u00a0
\nAbu Dhabi says the move is driven by \u201cnational interests\u201d and is part of a long-term strategy and a \u201csovereign, strategic choice\u201d aimed at giving it more flexibility over oil output. Emirati officials have repeatedly indicated the country no longer wants to be bound by production quotas, which have limited how much it can actually pump despite heavy investment in expanding capacity. A government source reportedly told AFP that the Gulf nation is seeking greater freedom to raise output once current supply disruptions ease.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Key OPEC member to leave bloc<\/p>\n
The UAE, which joined OPEC in 1967, also expressed appreciation for cooperation within the organization and with OPEC+ partners, a broader group formed in 2016 that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Oman, Mexico, and other non-OPEC countries.<\/p>\n
Who left and who is left in OPEC?\u00a0
\nOver the past decade, several members have walked away from OPEC \u2013 including Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, and Qatar \u2013 citing reasons ranging from production quotas and membership costs to broader political tensions.
\nThe group currently has 12 members, while the broader OPEC+ adds 10 more producers, bringing the total to 22 countries, including major non-OPEC players such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Mexico.
\nSome analysts say the UAE\u2019s move could encourage others seeking to raise output to reconsider their participation. Robin Mills, head of Dubai-based consultancy Qamar Energy, told CNN that \u201cnow is the time to leave\u201d for members aiming to grow production, pointing to Kazakhstan as a possible candidate.<\/p>\n
How much oil does UAE produce?\u00a0
\nUnder recent OPEC agreements, the UAE\u2019s output has been capped at roughly 3-3.5 million barrels per day, with actual production hovering around 3.2 million barrels per day. The country has consistently ranked behind fellow OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq in terms of production quotas.<\/p>\n
Before tumbling last month to 2.2 million bpd, the UAE had steadily increased production to around 3.6 million bpd. The UAE\u2019s stated crude oil production capacity currently stands at 4.85 million bpd, with an official target to raise that to 5.0 million bpd by 2027 through\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/Qra7xzQfuG\u2014 Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) April 28, 2026 <\/p>\n
Abu Dhabi has long sought higher quotas as it expanded capacity beyond those limits. The country now reportedly aims to raise its production capacity to about 5 million barrels per day by 2027. Analysts say that outside OPEC, it would be able to pump closer to its full capacity, rather than levels set by the group.<\/p>\n
What will OPEC do now?\u00a0
\nThe UAE\u2019s departure removes a significant share of the group\u2019s production capacity \u2013 estimated by the International Energy Agency at around 13% \u2013 dealing a blow to OPEC+, analysts say.
\nRather than triggering an immediate price war, experts expect a period of higher volatility and \u201csoft adjustment,\u201d as remaining members monitor the UAE\u2019s output and eventually renegotiate production quotas. OPEC+ countries are reportedly expected to discuss Abu Dhabi\u2019s decision at their next scheduled meeting in June.<\/p>\n
The UAE quitting Opec means the group has lost 13% of its production capacity (IEA assessments), a damaging blow to its market management capabilities. For the broader Opec+ alliance, the UAE holds 9% of capacity #OOTT pic.twitter.com\/NOuU88NOBI\u2014 Jamie Ingram (@Jamie__Ingram) April 28, 2026 <\/p>\n
Economist Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy has argued the UAE\u2019s move could \u201cstructurally weaken OPEC\u201d over time, giving the Gulf nation greater incentive to increase output and raising questions over Saudi Arabia\u2019s role as the group\u2019s main stabilizing force. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, added that while the market can absorb additional UAE supply in the short term, a shift by producers toward prioritizing market share over quota discipline could undermine OPEC\u2019s ability to manage supply through coordinated action.<\/p>\n
How did oil markets react?\u00a0
\nOil markets were already on edge before the UAE\u2019s announcement, given the US-Israeli war against Iran which is disrupting shipments in the Persian Gulf and raising fears of supply shortages. Brent crude has climbed above $110 a barrel for the first time in weeks, trading around $111 on Tuesday, while US benchmark WTI hovered near $99.
\nAnalysts say the UAE\u2019s exit has added to uncertainty, with traders weighing the prospect of additional supply against ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Most expect the immediate impact to be increased volatility. David Oxley, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the move could initially push prices lower but make markets more volatile \u201cfor decades,\u201d particularly if other producers follow.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Middle East war fallout hits consumers worldwide<\/p>\n
Good news for US?
\nSome observers claim the move could be politically convenient for Washington. US President Donald Trump repeatedly accused OPEC of \u201cripping off the rest of the world\u201d by what he called inflating oil prices and openly linked US military support for Gulf states to energy costs, arguing that while Washington defended OPEC members, they \u201cexploited\u201d this by keeping prices high. A weaker, less coordinated producers\u2019 bloc could give the US more leverage over individual exporters and global benchmarks, analysts argue.<\/p>\n
Is OPEC good for global consumers?
\nFounded more than six decades ago to give oil-exporting countries greater control over prices by coordinating production, OPEC has often been criticized by analysts for what they described as using quotas and output cuts to influence global markets.
\nSupporters say this coordination has at times helped stabilize prices, including during the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 demand shock, by preventing a deeper market collapse.
\nAnalysts agree that a weaker and more fragmented OPEC could make global oil markets less predictable and harder to manage, with potentially greater price swings and less coordinated control over supply.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The UAE says its decision is driven by \u201cnational interests\u201d as Middle East tensions disrupt energy markets The United Arab Emirates, one of the world\u2019s biggest oil exporters, has announced…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34240,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t