While Viktor Orban\u2019s successor is also a conservative, his victory signals a very different path for Budapest<\/p>\n
In politics, as in physics, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Viktor Orban spent 16 years building a \u2018Hungarian fortress\u2019\u00a0\u2013 a state protected from migrants, liberal values, and the dictates of Brussels. However, the irony of history is that the siege did not come from the outside.
\nThe keys to the \u2018fortress\u2019 were carried out by a man who had sat at the same table with Orban for years. Hungary did not betray its leader\u00a0\u2013 the name Viktor Orban is inscribed in golden letters in the country\u2019s modern history. However, young Hungarians, just like Orban\u2019s own generation in the late 1980s, are demanding change\u00a0\u2013 change that\u00a0is no longer always understood by the elite of the former ruling party. How will the emphasis shift, what is Magyar\u2019s \u2018liberal conservatism,\u2019\u00a0and who will address the problems presented by ethnic minorities?
\nWatching the video in which the political heavyweight Orban calmly and confidently speaks about the victory of the Tisza party in the recent elections, one gets the impression that the crushing victory of his opponent Peter Magyar came as a shock only to his entourage\u00a0\u2013 but not to him personally. Over 16 years, the Fidesz\u00a0elite had grown accustomed to electoral impunity, believing that its leader\u2019s charisma would outweigh any political costs.
\nThe ruling class became trapped in its own illusion: they believed they held a monopoly on truth, while the \u2018youth\u2019\u00a0were busy building careers in transnational corporations and flying visa-free on low-cost airlines. The Fidesz\u00a0generation, which had endured the difficult transition of the 1990s, viewed 25% inflation as an inevitable but temporary evil that simply had to be endured. It was this elite that missed the moment when another Hungary\u00a0\u2013 one that had grown up within the European Union\u00a0\u2013 began breathing down its neck.
\nFor young Hungarians, the \u2018stability\u2019 of recent years has become synonymous with stagnation. Inflation and a 50% increase in grocery prices, compared with Austria, which can be reached from Budapest in an hour, were seen as a sign of incompetent governance rather than resilience. This is what led to the crushing victory of the opposition in the April 12 elections. The Tisza party won 138 seats in parliament and, with such a majority, can amend Hungary\u2019s constitution at its discretion.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Magyar beats Orban in battle for Hungary: What happens now?<\/p>\n
What will change?
\nThe main outcome for Hungarians is the end of an era of permanent tension. Orban kept society on edge by constantly\u00a0pointing to enemies: George Soros, immigrants, the LGBT community, Brussels, the Ukrainian issue. These are not imaginary threats,\u00a0but society has grown tired of living on the brink; there is a demand for predictable politics.
\nThis is precisely at the center of Magyar\u2019s agenda: rapprochement with the European Union, reforming Hungary, strengthening independent courts, and developing healthcare and education. The price of this is the return of more than \u20ac19 billion from EU funds. Magyar promised to resolve this issue within a month, and much of Hungary\u2019s diplomatic corps will soon be engaged in negotiations to unlock this sum. What counter-demands will be made in exchange for this money, equivalent to nearly 10% of Hungary\u2019s GDP?
\nMigration pact and guest workers from Asia
\nMigration was one of the main issues in Orban\u2019s criticism of Western EU countries. Hungary opposed the EU migration pact approved in 2024 which will come into force in June 2026. The agreement establishes unified rules within the EU regarding migration and asylum for third-country nationals, including quotas for accepting migrants and contributions of around \u20ac1 million per day to a common fund for those refusing to accept them. Poland opposed the pact, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia raised serious objections. Magyar has also stated he will not sign it. At the same time, only 29 asylum applications were submitted in Hungary in 2024. Migrants usually see Hungary as a transit country to more comfortable destinations. Moreover, the peculiarities of migration legislation and integration are best illustrated by the situation of the Roma population\u00a0\u2013 extremely poor and poorly integrated.
\nAt the same time, around 400,000 residence permits were issued in 2024, mainly to guest workers for factory jobs. Ethnic Hungarians are unwilling to work for low wages and leave for better opportunities in other EU countries. According to the OSCE, about 50,000 people left the country in 2023 during the inflation spike. Meanwhile, Hungary must maintain its industrial capacity. For years, this demand has been met by migrants from Southeast Asia\u00a0\u2013 Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
\nDuring the campaign, Magyar skillfully exploited this contradiction. His narrative was simple: \u201cThe Fidesz government is betraying the nation\u00a0\u2013 importing cheap labor to depress Hungarian wages and please Chinese corporations.\u201d
\nWhat happens next? The fence on the Serbian border will remain: Magyar is not reckless, and Hungarian society will not accept open borders. However, the \u201cStop Brussels\u201d billboards and corresponding\u00a0messaging on state television will disappear. Migration policy will become bureaucratic. Guest workers will continue to arrive.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Orban falls, but Hungary\u2019s realities remain<\/p>\n
Relations with China
\nIn recent years, Hungarian-Chinese relations have been at their peak. This course was set by Orb\u00e1n in 2010 with the \u2018Opening to the East\u2019\u00a0strategy aimed at attracting investment for infrastructure development. Major projects include the modernization of the Belgrade-Budapest railway and the construction of battery factories for electric vehicles in Debrecen by Chinese giants CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology) and Eve Power (around \u20ac9 billion in investment), as well as a full-cycle electric cat plant by BYD (Build Your Dreams), with around \u20ac5 million\u00a0worth of investment.
\nHowever, since the 2020s, China has been labeled a \u201csystemic rival\u201d by the EU, and European institutions have slowed Chinese projects. The Belgrade-Budapest railway has been particularly affected due to EU tender rules.
\nWith Magyar\u2019s government, Budapest\u2013Beijing relations will no longer be on an upward trajectory. Magyar will not shut down factories, although he criticized \u201cbattery colonies\u201d during rallies. However, China will lose its \u2018political cover\u2019\u00a0in the EU\u00a0\u2013 Hungary will stop blocking anti-China initiatives, and preferential treatment will end. The future of the railway project will be uncertain and subject to anti-corruption audits.
\nRelations with Russia
\nHungary has limited room for moves that would significantly affect Russian foreign policy\u00a0\u2013 lifting the veto on a \u20ac90 billion loan for Ukraine\u2019s army, nuclear and energy contracts, and supporting new sanctions.
\nSanctions have previously been adopted unanimously, including with Orb\u00e1n\u2019s participation, so this would not surprise the Kremlin. The Ukraine loan is geopolitical and depends largely on the EU\u2019s real financial capacity \u2013 so Hungary’s approval does not automatically mean cash from the EU budget will be handed to Ukraine.
\nThe key asset inherited by Magyar\u2019s team is the package of strategic agreements with Gazprom and Rosatom. Orb\u00e1n built long-term energy security architecture, not just covering immediate needs. Dismantling this system would be extremely costly and difficult within one electoral cycle.
\nOne major project is the Paks II nuclear plant, expected to raise nuclear energy\u2019s share to 70%. The cost is \u20ac12.5 billion (\u20ac10 billion financed by a Russian loan). Freezing construction is technically possible but would entail penalties. Most likely, the project will enter a slow \u201caudit\u201d phase, but construction will not fully stop.
\nAnother key project is TurkStream. A 15-year contract with Gazprom (until 2036) supplies 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually via Turkey and Serbia \u2013 the only safe route for oil according to the previous government.
\nHungary also continues to receive oil via the Druzhba pipeline under an EU exemption. Alternatives like Croatia\u2019s JANAF pipeline would be five times more expensive because of that government’s transit tariffs. Thus, Magyar\u2019s government will face no cheap options\u00a0\u2013 either expensive maritime oil or \u2018toxic\u2019 Russian supplies.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Hungary\u2019s new leader faces an immediate reality check<\/p>\n
The US
\nRelations between Budapest and Washington are entering a complicated phase. Orb\u00e1n hosted CPAC, befriended Tucker Carlson, and called Donald Trump \u201cthe hope of the world.\u201d The White House reciprocated: Vice President J.D. Vance personally supported Orb\u00e1n before the vote. Magyar\u2019s victory represents a failure of Trump\u2019s bet. The US president is in a difficult position \u2013 the\u00a0people he praised for their \u201cwisdom\u201d voted against his chosen candidate.
\nFor Trump, Magyar is a \u2018European bureaucrat,\u2019\u00a0so instead of maintaining friendship with the US Magyar will likely\u00a0bet on NATO. His campaign promise to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 reflects this. Relations will remain pragmatic but without the previous ideological closeness \u2013 this is a language Trump understands.
\nThe Vatican’s stake
\nThe most dramatic shift will occur in regions with ethnic Hungarian populations \u2014 Transcarpathia, Transylvania, Slovakia, and Vojvodina. The Tisza program suggests major changes: criticism of diaspora voting rights, shifting minority rights protection to supranational institutions (ECHR), and revising funding laws for foreign communities (labeled \u201ccorruption\u201d in Magyar\u2019s program). In practice, this means Hungary\u2019s financial and spiritual withdrawal from the region. This creates conditions for EU humanitarian\u00a0organizations and the Vatican to become the main actors.
\nHistorically, Hungary has been seen by the Vatican as Antemurale Christianitatis\u00a0\u2013 a bulwark of Christianity. It is a frontier between East (Orthodoxy) and South (Islam). Hungary\u2019s mission was to filter Western values eastward while blocking eastern chaos. This perception persists, but Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Hungary pursued its own ideology, engaging with Russia and China. Magyar\u2019s rise symbolizes a shift in soft power geopolitics\u00a0\u2013 returning the \u2018keys to the fortress\u2019 to the Pope.
\nMoreover, while for the EU Austro-Hungary is ancient, and often murky, history, for Vatican it remains a meaningful project\u00a0\u2013 the last great Catholic empire. From the Holy See’s perspective, it was a perfect state, a large territory where religion was more important than nationality, and unity of faith was growing through borders.\u00a0Restoring it politically is obviously impossible,\u00a0but\u00a0spiritual revival is achievable. This will involve networks of Catholic schools, universities, and charities across Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia, and Transylvania.
\nIn conclusion, Hungary stands on the threshold of major transformation. Its geography, political dynamics, and foreign policy orientation remain crucial for understanding European processes. Even within a broadly conservative-right framework, shifting priorities bring new actors forward and weaken those whose authority previously\u00a0 seemed impregnable. In the broader context of global change, such developments are a pattern, not an accident.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
While Viktor Orban\u2019s successor is also a conservative, his victory signals a very different path for Budapest In politics, as in physics, every action has an equal and opposite reaction.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33063,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t