Extended truce, renewed war, or endless strikes \u2013 each reshapes the region in Iran\u2019s favor<\/p>\n
The almost apocalyptic rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who threatened that\u00a0\u201ca\u00a0whole civilization will die tonight,\u201d\u00a0suddenly gave way to de-escalation. By the evening of April 7, it was announced that the US and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire; shortly afterward, Israel confirmed it would join. Over these two weeks, negotiations toward a permanent peace deal are due to be held with Pakistan acting as mediator.
\nThis is exactly the scenario we saw as the most likely from the very beginning of the conflict.
\nThe war could still resume (we\u2019ll get to that below), but for now it looks like things are moving toward a reality where the Persian Gulf is, in fact, becoming Persian. Iran now effectively controls shipping in the Gulf and holds the Arab oil monarchies at risk \u2013 and the US appears to be accepting that.<\/p>\n
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Scenario 1: A prolonged ceasefire
\nLet\u2019s assume the pause in hostilities lasts months \u2013 or even years. That\u2019s entirely plausible: even if a formal peace deal doesn\u2019t materialize, the ceasefire could simply be extended over and over again.
\nIn that case, the top priority for the Arab states will be building a new generation of air defense. The blueprint is fairly clear: rely on cheap, mass-produced interceptors, whether ground-based (such as Russia\u2019s Pantsir) or air-launched (like APKWS). Both Arab states and Israel will likely focus on this, alongside replenishing their traditional air defense stockpiles.
\nThe second priority will be diversifying logistics \u2013 building new pipelines to the Red Sea and finding alternatives to Gulf shipping routes. The goal is obvious: break free from Iran\u2019s Strait of Hormuz chokehold and reduce its leverage. That said, for countries like Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq, pipelines across the Arabian Peninsula would mean dependence on another regional power \u2013 Saudi Arabia. And, of course, transit fees would apply.
\nNone of this solves the core problem. The geography of the Gulf makes full protection impossible. Across more than 500 nautical miles (about 1,000 km) \u2013 like something out of an old arcade shooter \u2013 every shipping lane is within Iran\u2019s reach. Along the coastline, ports, factories, desalination plants, oil storage facilities, data centers, hotels, and skyscrapers sit exposed like targets at a shooting range. Defending all of that from the sea is extremely difficult, and for the time being, the Arab states will likely choose to pay for safe passage.<\/p>\n
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At the end of the day, they don\u2019t really care who provides that security umbrella. They used to pay the US; now they\u2019ll pay Iran. The price isn\u2019t even that steep \u2013 reportedly around $2 million per supertanker, which is just 2-3% of the value of the oil onboard. And ultimately, the buyers will foot the bill anyway.
\nIn the East, one of the highest marks of a wise ruler is the ability to impose tribute on neighbors and make them acknowledge your authority. That principle is well understood in both Iran and the Arab world. Ironically, the US and Israel may have helped bring about a new regional order that actually fits local political logic.
\nNow Washington and West Jerusalem will face a long, uphill battle to rebuild their influence \u2013 and any move they make will be viewed with skepticism by Arab states: what if it all falls apart again? The alpha wolf missed his mark.
\nScenario 2: Renewed escalation
\nIt\u2019s entirely possible that in two weeks the war could flare up again \u2013 potentially with even greater intensity. Iranian negotiators could be targeted again, triggering an earlier collapse of the ceasefire. Still, we see this as relatively unlikely: despite the considerable military capabilities of the US and Israel, they currently lack a clear path to decisively defeat Iran through conventional means.
\nRealistically, short of a nuclear scenario, the coalition has two main options.<\/p>\n
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Mission accomplished? The costly reality behind the US rescue operation in Iran<\/p>\n
The first is a campaign of intensive strategic bombing aimed at \u201cbombing Iran back into the Stone Age.\u201d That would require US strategic bombers to operate directly over Iranian territory \u2013 a risky proposition, as the incident near Isfahan demonstrated. In such conditions, B-52 bombers would actually be more vulnerable than modern fighter jets \u2013 they\u2019re as easy to shoot down as civilian airliners, even for relatively outdated air defense systems.
\nMeanwhile, Iran\u2019s missile capabilities have not only survived but shown signs of recovery and increased operational tempo. And US forces have been unable to seriously disrupt Iran\u2019s drone launch infrastructure (including Shahed-type UAVs). That means any large-scale bombing campaign risks triggering significant retaliatory damage \u2013 especially against the oil-producing Arab monarchies \u2013 prolonging and deepening the global oil shock and potentially pushing the world toward a financial crisis.
\nIsrael would also be exposed. According to a JPMorgan report citing the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, the success rate of Iranian strikes on Israeli territory has surged \u2013 from 3% at the start of the war to 27% by late March and early April \u2013 largely due to the strain and depletion of Israeli air defenses.
\nThe second option \u2013 a large-scale ground operation, either along Iran\u2019s coastline or against Iranian-controlled islands \u2013 comes with all the risks of air warfare plus inevitable heavy casualties. The upside? Essentially none. Limited amphibious raids would achieve little, while a full-scale invasion aimed at regime change is simply not feasible.
\nNone of this means escalation is off the table. It means that before escalating, US and Israeli leadership would have to solve the same equation they faced at the start of the war \u2013 but now with far fewer unknowns. Iran\u2019s resilience, its military capabilities, and the extent of US-Israeli international isolation are now much clearer.<\/p>\n
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Iran has prevailed, and the Middle East has changed<\/p>\n
If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes and is then disrupted again by US or Israeli action, they would be widely seen as responsible for triggering a global economic crisis.
\nScenario 3: Low-level clashes under Iranian control of Hormuz
\nThis is essentially a variation of the first scenario \u2013 and, in our view, the most likely one. In fact, it already appears to be unfolding: Iran is accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire with new strikes and is threatening (and likely preparing) to retaliate.
\nIf traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues more or less uninterrupted, a pattern of ongoing tension and sporadic exchanges could become the new normal. Israel carries out strikes (or Iran claims it was attacked); Iran responds by temporarily shutting down the strait for a day or two \u2013 maybe launching a retaliatory strike of its own.
\nAfter a few weeks or months, this kind of news simply fades into the background \u2013 a constant, low-level risk. The region becomes less stable, but the rest of the world largely shrugs \u2013 as long as oil and other resources keep flowing out of the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Extended truce, renewed war, or endless strikes \u2013 each reshapes the region in Iran\u2019s favor The almost apocalyptic rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who threatened that\u00a0\u201ca\u00a0whole civilization will die…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32891,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-environment","category-politics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t