The German chancellor, French president and Italian prime minister appear to have seen reason in making up with Moscow. But is it genuine?<\/p>\n
Sometimes a surprising statement made almost in passing on a minor occasion can pack a lot of political oomph. And sometimes, it\u2019s just a slip and won\u2019t tell you much about either the present or the future. But how do you know?
\nThat is the challenge posed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz\u2019s recent \u2013 and very unusual \u2013 talk about a \u201ccompromise\u201d\u00a0 (\u201cAusgleich\u201d in German) with Russia, which, he also stressed, is \u201ca European country,\u201d indeed \u201cour greatest European neighbor.\u201d
\nOutside the context of current Western and, in particular, German and EU politics, such a statement may seem almost commonplace. Obviously, it would make sense for Berlin \u2013 and Brussels, too \u2013 to work toward a peaceful, productive, mutually beneficial relationship with Moscow. Equally obviously, this is not merely an option but, in reality, a vital necessity (as Merz may have been hinting at when emphasizing that Russia is Germany\u2019s greatest European neighbor: Greatest as in indispensable?).
\nYet once you add the actual context of escalating German and EU policies toward Russia since 2014 at the very latest, Merz\u2019s sudden insight into the obvious appears almost sensational. For over a decade, German and EU policy toward Moscow has been based on three simple \u2013 and self-damagingly insane \u2013 ideas: First, Russia is our enemy by default and \u201cforever\u201d (see the refreshingly frank admission by German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul). Second, using Ukraine (and a lot of Ukrainians), we can defeat that enemy with a combination of economic and diplomatic warfare and a very bloody proxy war on the ground. Finally, there is no alternative: it is VERBOTEN to even think about genuine give-and-take negotiations and any compromise that would also be good enough for Moscow.
\nMerz, moreover, has no record as a doubter of these moronic dogmas. On the contrary, he has been a consistent uber-hawk, combining the requisite constant Russophobic undertone with a long series of hardline initiatives and positions. Just a few months ago, for instance, Merz fought tooth and nail for confiscating Russian sovereign assets frozen in the EU. That he lost that fight was due to resistance from Belgium \u2013 which would have been exposed to absurdly irrational risks by permitting that robbery \u2013 and France and Italy, whose leaders tripped up their hapless German \u201cally\u201d at the last minute.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Germany\u2019s Merz changes stance on Russia<\/p>\n
In a similar combination of public belligerence and final futility, Merz had long been a proponent of delivering advanced German Taurus cruise missiles \u2013 particularly well-suited for destroying things such as Russia\u2019s Kerch Bridge \u2013 to Ukraine, before abandoning that awful idea. Ultimately and wisely, he shied away from involving Germany even more deeply in the proxy fight against Russia, most likely under the impression of very firm warnings from Moscow.
\nJust this month, the German chancellor declared he is ready to send German soldiers to secure a \u201cceasefire\u201d in Ukraine. Yes, that would be that ceasefire that Moscow has ruled out as a dishonest half-measure. It is true that Merz hedged this announcement with conditions that make it irrelevant. But, nonetheless, it was not a contribution to de-escalation with Russia.
\nYet here we are. Speaking not in Berlin, but the provincial metropolis of Halle in Eastern Germany, Merz used the occasion of a fairly humdrum meeting under the auspices of a regional IHK (Industrie und Handelskammer) meeting to speak about Germany\u2019s relationship with Russia.
\nThe IHK is a chamber of industry and commerce, an economic association of some weight. But it is not the parliament in Berlin or, for instance, even a foreign-policy information war outfit\/think tank. Most of Merz\u2019s remarks, unsurprisingly, concerned the German economy, which, he had to admit, is not in a good state, but, he promised, will be better soon. He also gave his word to fight and reduce bureaucracy, not only in Germany but the EU as well. That sort of stuff, nothing special, political potboiler.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
EU\u2019s Kallas says it\u2019s time for booze \u2013 Politico<\/p>\n
But then, in the middle of the absolutely predictable and rather boring meeting, the chancellor suddenly extended a hand to Moscow. Or did he? Merz himself knows that his having anything to say about Russia that comes without foam at the mouth is extraordinary: he took care to assure his listeners that it was not the location\u00a0\u201cin the East\u201d (that is, the former East Germany) that made him strike such a new tone regarding Russia.
\nHis audience may or may not have been convinced by that all-too-quick denial. Halle is not only a major city in Germany\u2019s East, but also, more specifically, the second-largest conurbation in the Land of Saxony-Anhalt. That is where, polls suggest, the new-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party may well win a crucial election in September, particularly by outdistancing Merz\u2019s own mainstream conservatives (CDU). A similar scenario is possible in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, also in Germany\u2019s East.
\nIn both places, even a relative (not absolute) AfD majority, which seems certain at this point, would expose the traditional parties and especially the CDU to one of their worst nightmares: the end of the so-called \u201cfirewall,\u201d that is, the harebrained and undemocratic policy of simply freezing the AfD out of the building of ruling coalitions. Merz personally has been an iron proponent of the \u201cfirewall.\u201d Razing it, even regionally, will cost him his political career or force him into a brutal, humiliating 180-degree turn.
\nOne important reason voters in Germany\u2019s East are unhappy with the traditional parties is their policy of relentless, self-damaging confrontation toward Russia and equally relentless, really masochistic support for Zelensky\u2019s regime in Ukraine. Just now, one of Germany\u2019s highest courts has finally, in essence, recognized the fact that Ukraine was deeply involved in the worst vital-infrastructure attack in postwar German history, the destruction of most of the Nord Stream pipelines. Many Germans have had enough, not only but especially in Germany\u2019s East.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Kremlin welcomes European U-turn on talks with Russia<\/p>\n
That is why Merz knows that any apparent concessions to Moscow will meet healthy skepticism there. He also has a solid and well-deserved reputation for breaking his promises. His listeners in Halle may well have dismissed the new Merz sound as nothing but cheap pre-electoral manipulation.
\nAnd perhaps that is all it was. But there are good reasons to keep an open mind. For one thing, Merz has not been the only EU leader striking a more conciliatory note recently. As the Russian government has noted, similar statements have been made in France and Italy. The leaders of both countries, Emmanuel Macron and Georgia Meloni, have been no less bold than Merz in stating the obvious, namely \u2013 to summarize \u2013 that not even talking to Moscow is a daft policy.
\nIt is not hard to see why EU politicians may be prepared to pursue diplomacy again. Their imperial overlord in Washington has made it clear that the Ukraine war will be their problem and theirs alone, while also displaying a brutality towards the world, including the clients\/vassals in Europe, that is unusually open even by American standards.
\nAfter the tariff wars, the new US National Security Strategy, Venezuela, and the threats against Denmark over Greenland, could it be that, at very long last, some in Europe are slowly waking up to the fact that the worst threat to the sorry remains of their sovereignty, their economies, and also their traditional political elites is Washington, not Moscow? It would be very rash to assume so. But we can hope.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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