As Washington seizes Maduro, Russian analysts warn of a bold show of force aimed at Latin America and global stability<\/p>\n
Washington has sharply escalated its military campaign against Caracas, carrying out an operation on January 3 during which US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and removed them from the country. The US government has charged Maduro with drug trafficking and terrorism and intends to try him in New York.
\nIn response to US actions in Venezuela, foreign governments \u2013 including Russia and China \u2013 have called for de-escalation and Maduro\u2019s release. Diplomatic activity has also intensified in Caracas and other Latin American capitals, highlighting deep disagreements over the legitimacy of the intervention.
\nRT has compiled commentary from leading Russian experts on Donald Trump\u2019s actions and on Russia\u2019s potential responses.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Trump demands \u2018total access\u2019 to Venezuelan oil: LIVE UPDATES<\/p>\n
Valentin Bogdanov, Head of VGTRK\u2019s New York Bureau:
\nThe spectacle-style unveiling of Donald Trump\u2019s brutally updated version of the Monroe Doctrine began with a nighttime helicopter raid over Caracas \u2013 and continued, under Trump\u2019s direction, over New York. The entire, meticulously documented saga of transporting Venezuela\u2019s captured president to the United States, filmed at the most humiliating stages of his detention, seemed designed to convince a target audience that clearly extends beyond Latin America that Fukuyama\u2019s \u2018end of history\u2019 never really happened. If anything, this is not the first quarter of the 21st century, but very much the first quarter of the 19th \u2013 the era when the doctrine itself was proclaimed. No liberal sentimentality. Just raw power.
\nMaduro\u2019s humiliatingly sagging tracksuit pants \u2013 the first photo of him under arrest, taken aboard the amphibious assault ship ‘Iwo Jima’. The shackles and chains binding the Venezuelan president\u2019s legs on the tarmac at Stewart Air National Guard Base, as he is escorted from a Boeing arriving from Guant\u00e1namo to a hangar. DEA agents clustering together for a group photo: the detainee in handcuffs, the officers looming like bounty hunters celebrating another trophy. Maduro, notably, did not break. His mocking \u2018Happy New Year!\u2019 uttered en route to the DEA\u2019s New York headquarters will likely be quoted for years. These are indeed new times \u2013 above all for Donald Trump.
\nThe US president, who arrived 45 minutes late to what should have been a triumphant press conference at Mar-a-Lago, did not look particularly happy. The reason is obvious. Capturing Maduro is one thing; capturing Venezuela is quite another. Judging by who remains in power in Caracas, Trump\u2019s original plan is far from being realized. Whose efforts ensured that outcome remains an open question. But recalling that, ahead of Operation \u2018Absolute Resolve,\u2019 the White House hosted the US ambassador to China while Maduro received a Chinese delegation, it is not difficult to guess who drew a red line \u2013 in both the literal and figurative sense \u2013 in front of Trump.<\/p>\n
Read more<\/p>\n
Oil, arms and longstanding ties: What connects Russia and Venezuela<\/p>\n
Hence the bravado, the ultimatums, and the immediately declared limits of what is possible. The first to be tossed into the spam folder was opposition figure Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, whom Trump dismissed as lacking leadership qualities. His promise to assume transitional control over Venezuela, meanwhile, almost instantly collided with his own bargaining with the country\u2019s new\/old authorities. The United States, Trump said in an interview, would refrain from deploying troops on Venezuelan soil if the newly sworn-in Vice President Rodr\u00edguez does what Washington wants. What Trump wants is simple: oil \u2013 and as much of it as possible. Caracas, for its part, has already delivered the standard response: \u2018The oil belongs to the people.\u2019
\nOf course, there is also the stick. Trump is already threatening a second wave of strikes. But he has inadvertently revealed his greatest fear: a ground operation \u2013 the dreaded boots on the ground. That is something today\u2019s Trump-era America could not sustain under any circumstances, even in its own backyard. And that is precisely why what happened on the night of January 2\u20133 is less a tectonic shift in geopolitics \u2013 Washington has manhandled Latin America plenty over the past two centuries \u2013 than a significant domestic political milestone.
\nThe principal beneficiary here is not so much Trump as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose diplomatic cover for the Caracas operation adds substantial momentum to a potential 2028 presidential run, fueled by Spanish-speaking voters \u2013 a demographic that continues to grow. Venezuelans and Hondurans, Mexicans and Cubans, Salvadorans and Nicaraguans \u2013 the backbone of the Republican Party\u2019s emerging electorate \u2013 have little interest in Ukraine or globalist ambitions. One cannot say that this is a bad thing.<\/p>\n
Valentin Bogdanov, Head of VGTRK\u2019s New York Bureau.<\/p>\n
Anastasia Gafarova, political analyst and deputy director of the Center for Political Information:
\nDonald Trump has no intention of launching a prolonged ground operation in Venezuela. The US will act quickly and aim for maximum effect. Venezuela, with its impenetrable jungles and a well-developed guerrilla movement, inevitably evokes uncomfortable Vietnam-style analogies, which is precisely why the US administration wants to get in and out of this situation as fast as possible, with clear results. And the result is obvious: the overthrow of the so-called Maduro regime.
\nIt cannot be ruled out that what happened is part of a broader political deal, possibly carried out with the consent of Maduro himself and his key partners. Alternatively, it may be the result of betrayal within the Venezuelan president\u2019s inner circle.
\nWhat matters is that these events are an attempt to exert pressure not only on Venezuela, but on other Latin American countries as well \u2013 Brazil, for example, where elections are approaching.<\/p>\n
Anastasia Gafarova, political analyst and deputy director of the Center for Political Information.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Maria Devakhina <\/p>\n
Maxim Suchkov, Director of the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University:
\nStarting a war in a midterm election year is a risky undertaking, but not a reckless one. It is risky because there is always the possibility of getting bogged down. It is not reckless because, both politically and militarily, a US operation against Venezuela appears carefully thought through.
\nOn the political front, Washington moved in advance to cut off any external support for Nicolas Maduro. Talks with Russia over Ukraine have entered a decisive phase, with the assumption that Moscow would be unwilling to openly clash with Washington under such circumstances. At the same time, the US has held intensive, confidential talks with China in recent days, clearly delineating what it considers its sphere of influence.
\nMilitarily, Donald Trump is clearly betting on a blitzkrieg.
\nBut this is a Trump-style blitzkrieg: precision strikes against military facilities, infrastructure, and symbolic sites \u2013 including the destruction of Chavez\u2019s grave as a symbolic blow to the regime and a signal to its ideological opponents at home \u2013 combined with a massive information campaign. It follows the logic of so-called \u2018cognitive warfare\u2019: breaking the will to resist among both the military and the civilian population.
\nYet the \u2018Trump-style world order\u2019 is not limited to a traditional American sphere of influence. In Venezuela\u2019s case, it is also a powerful instrument for managing the global oil market. And that goes well beyond Latin America, directly affecting Russian interests.<\/p>\n
Maxim Suchkov, Director of the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Kirill Zykov <\/p>\n
Dmitry Rozental, Director of the Institute of Latin America at the Russian Academy of Sciences:
\nI don\u2019t think Donald Trump initially planned to attack Venezuela. What we are seeing now is driven primarily by domestic political considerations. Trump needed to mobilize his electoral base and secure additional support from the Venezuelan and Cuban diasporas, which are deeply hostile to left-wing regimes, including the government in Venezuela. But as the situation evolved and tensions mounted, Trump said and did so much that, at a certain point, he could no longer pull back.
\nSome time ago, there were reports that talks were underway between the two governments, and a number of observers did not rule out the possibility that a deal could be reached. Apparently, that did not happen. The actions by US military and special forces on January 3 mark a new phase of escalation, one in which the stakes are now significantly higher.
\nMore broadly, Venezuela has long been viewed by the American establishment as a threat to US national interests. For Washington, full control over the Western Hemisphere is essential, and the presence of openly antagonistic states in the region is unacceptable. Venezuela also holds vast oil reserves and, more generally, considerable strategic potential. Unsurprisingly, successive US administrations \u2013 Republican and Democratic alike \u2013 have sought to weaken Venezuela\u2019s position and push for a more pro-American political order. That said, Venezuela was never a top priority for the US, and Trump\u2019s decision was shaped to a large extent by domestic political pressures at home.
\nAs for Russia, its options in this situation are fairly limited. Moscow will undoubtedly provide political and moral support to the Venezuelan leadership and take all necessary steps on international platforms. Beyond that, for a number of reasons, it is difficult to say what more can be done at this stage.<\/p>\n
Dmitry Rozental, Director of the Institute of Latin America at the Russian Academy of Sciences.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Vitaly Belousov <\/p>\n
Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs:
\nDonald Trump has chosen to make it unmistakably clear that, for him, the Monroe Doctrine is not just a slogan tucked into the National Security Strategy, but a guide to action. Regime change in Venezuela in favor of a Washington-friendly government is framed by Trump\u2019s team not as another \u2018endless war\u2019 in the mold of Iraq or Afghanistan, but as a matter of US national security. It is no coincidence that the pretext being advanced involves allegations \u2013 by all appearances entirely fabricated \u2013 of Caracas\u2019 involvement in drug trafficking and the funneling of migrant flows toward the US. The overthrow of Maduro is meant to send a message to all of Latin America about who is in charge of the region and how one is expected to behave.
\nHow resilient popular support for the Chavistas really is, and how capable they are of resisting pressure, will become clear in the near future. The same goes for the level of risk Trump is prepared to accept. A ground operation would carry the danger of casualties and entanglement \u2013 precisely what runs counter to the president\u2019s stated instincts. That said, if reports about Maduro being removed from the country are true, Trump can already declare a sweeping victory, regardless of what happens next inside Venezuela.
\nFor Russia, this is an awkward situation. Venezuela is a close partner and a like-minded ally, and Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and Vladimir Putin have long-standing ties. US actions can provoke nothing but outrage in Moscow. At the same time, providing any meaningful assistance to a country so distant and embedded in an entirely different geopolitical environment is simply not feasible. That is partly a matter of technical and logistical constraints, but there is also a political dimension. Putin and Trump currently have another issue on the agenda that is far more consequential for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all its sympathies toward Caracas, the Kremlin is unlikely to upend the entire game with a critically important counterpart over a secondary issue.
\nIn practical terms, Venezuela\u2019s closer and more materially grounded relationship is with China. Trump\u2019s moves in Latin America are tied to a broader strategic objective: pushing China out of the region. Beijing, however, is also unlikely to take any concrete action in this situation.<\/p>\n
Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Grigory Sysoev <\/p>\n
Timofey Bordachev, professor at the Higher School of Economics:
\nThis fixation on the so-called Monroe Doctrine is, of course, appealing to many people, since it points to a relatively familiar historical analogy and, in doing so, relieves them of the need to think too hard. It is also well suited to today\u2019s information environment for exactly that reason. But taken seriously, invoking a concept that is two centuries old \u2013 assuming it is meant seriously at all, which itself is debatable \u2013 serves a purpose beyond mere spectacle: it points to a fundamental crisis of ideas.
\nAny first-year international relations student should understand that historical analogies do not work as an analytical tool, just as outdated concepts do not work as a basis for policy \u2013 simply because the context has changed so profoundly over the past 200 years. In other words, an intellectual crisis is one of the defining features of contemporary world politics. And it is hardly surprising that, when expressed through the American lens, this crisis takes on its most dramatic and theatrical forms.<\/p>\n
Timofey Bordachev, professor at the Higher School of Economics.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Irina Motina <\/p>\n
Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai Club:
\nBoth sanctions and the use of military force are tools of foreign policy. They can be used in combination \u2013 and more often than not, they are. Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yugoslavia, and so on.
\nThe US military operation against Venezuela is another such case, though with a distinct twist. The overthrow of a sitting government and the seizure of a country\u2019s president are far rarer phenomena.
\nThis episode highlights the growing vulnerability of political systems in a region that is geographically distant from other centers of power.
\nThat said, the Soviet Union once managed to provide effective support to Cuba, and the Bay of Pigs invasion ended badly for the US.\u00a0
\nIn other cases, circumstances proved decisive. The 1980 US special forces operation \u2018Eagle Claw\u2019 to rescue hostages from Iran failed due to a cumulative mix of bad luck and sheer mismanagement.
\nThis time, everything went smoothly for the United States. Trump took a risk \u2013 and, for the moment, won.
\nIn a significant number of capitals, officials will now be asking themselves whether he might be willing to take the same risk with them.
\nIt appears that delegations will start heading to Beijing and Moscow. Risks need to be controlled \u2013 or, if one prefers the term, mitigated.
\nA key indicator of the shift toward multipolarity will be how effectively those risks can be managed and mitigated, whether independently or with the help of so-called \u2018black knights.\u2019<\/p>\n
Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai Club.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Grigory Sysoev <\/p>\n
Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Federation Council:
\nThere is no doubt that Venezuela posed no threat to the United States \u2013 military, humanitarian, criminal, or narcotics-related. The latter is confirmed by a specialized UN agency. That means the current military operation, like the actions taken against Venezuela over recent days and weeks, has no substantive justification whatsoever.
\nIn a striking irony, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 2025 for calls to bomb Venezuela. Should the actual bombing of Venezuela now be seen as a step toward the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as well?
\nOrder must be based on international law, not on so-called \u2018rules.\u2019 International law has clearly been violated. An order imposed in this manner must not prevail.
\nI am confident that the global majority will decisively distance itself from the attack on Venezuela and condemn it. The global minority, by contrast, faces agonizing choices \u2013 ones that will either once again put values and interests in their proper places, or consign values once and for all to the scrap heap in the face of the geopolitical priorities of transatlantic solidarity.<\/p>\n
Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Federation Council.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 Sputnik\/Sergey Bobylev<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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