Behind the headlines, Russia\u2019s advance in Donbass reveals shifting tactics, collapsing defenses, and the stakes of 2025\u2019s decisive fight<\/p>\n
The Donbass town of Pokrovsk (known in Russia as Krasnoarmeysk) has found itself at the center of attention in recent days. In many ways, the Russian advance in this strategic stronghold appears to be following a familiar pattern: Ukraine denies there\u2019s a crisis, holds on too long, attempts futile counterattacks instead of executing a retreat and ultimately gives way with tremendous losses. But similarities aside, what is happening here comes at a pivotal time and may well determine how the next phase of the war shapes up.\u00a0The Kiev regime is, as is its unfailing tendency, attempting to downplay the crisis \u2013 although, as we will see below, its actions say otherwise. Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to Vladimir Zelensky, insists there\u2019s no encirclement, claiming instead that Ukrainian special units are \u201cclearing out infiltrating Russian troops.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Zelensky himself\u00a0claims that Moscow is exploiting the \u201cPokrovsk narrative\u201d to project an image of success on the battlefield.
\nRussian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, says the enemy is already trapped in the cities of Kupiansk and, using the Russian name, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Ukrainian attempts at obfuscation aside, many Western media reports paint a similar picture.\u00a0
\nIf it’s clear enough to most how things will play out militarily\u00a0in Pokrovsk, many commentators do not yet see these events for their likely true significance: the decisive fight of 2025.\u00a0Why does Pokrovsk matter so much, how did this situation unfold, and what lies ahead?
\nThe importance of Pokrovsk
\nPokrovsk \u2013 known in Soviet times as Krasnoarmeysk \u2013 together with the nearby city of Mirnograd and several smaller towns and worker settlements, forms the second-largest urban cluster still under Ukrainian control in Donbass. Before the war, the combined population of this area was about 200,000 people \u2013 roughly half the size of Mariupol, which had around 400,000 residents in 2021.
\nFor simplicity, we\u2019ll refer to this entire area as Pokrovsk.
\nSo why does Pokrovsk matter? First, its sheer size gives it major strategic weight. During the early years of the Russian military operation\u00a0Pokrovsk served as a crucial logistics hub along the southern front. It was a key rail and road junction with vast warehouse capacity, suitable for large garrisons, support units, and field hospitals.<\/p>\n
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Second, Pokrovsk functioned like a fortress, preventing Russian forces from pushing further west. Donbass is a heavily urbanized region, and fighting through it is notoriously difficult. By contrast, when Russian troops captured Velikaya Novoselka, a relatively small settlement, their units were able to move swiftly into Dnepropetrovsk Region \u2013 an advance that would have been impossible in Donetsk\u2019s dense urban sprawl. The open fields beyond offer far easier terrain.
\nIf Pokrovsk falls, a similar \u2013 and potentially greater \u2013 domino effect could follow. For nearly 100km west of the city, there are no major urban centers, water obstacles, or natural elevations. Pokrovsk itself sits on a ridge, meaning that any advance westward would literally be downhill \u2013 an easier push for the advancing army.
\nFurthermore, losing several brigades in an encirclement (more on that below) would tear a significant gap in Ukraine\u2019s defensive line, creating serious operational challenges.
\nFinally, Pokrovsk\u2019s significance isn\u2019t purely military. One of Europe\u2019s largest lithium deposits lies nearby \u2013 an especially intriguing detail given the \u201crare earth minerals deal\u201d once discussed between US President Donald Trump and Zelensky.
\n2024\u20132025: From Avdeevka to Pokrovsk
\nThe Russian offensive began in February 2024 with the capture of Avdeevka and continued for more than a year, lasting into March and April 2025. During that period, over a dozen towns and urban settlements along the central Donetsk front were liberated, as Russian forces slowly pushed their way through the vast industrial belt of the region.
\nBy the fall of 2024, the front had crept close to Pokrovsk. After the offensive tapered off and an operational pause followed in the spring of 2025, Russian forces resumed maneuvering \u2013 this time focusing on cutting off the city from the east and south. It had long been anticipated that Pokrovsk would become one of the next key objectives, and that prediction proved correct.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 RT \/ Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru <\/p>\n
By August, the Russian army began employing its trademark encirclement strategy. The city was effectively sealed off on three sides, while supply routes came under fire control. Over the following weeks and months, the Ukrainian garrison inside Pokrovsk was gradually worn down. As the encirclement tightened, the eventual storming of the city seemed likely to face little organized resistance \u2013 the same method Russia had successfully used in Avdeevka, Kurakhovo, Ugledar, and a dozen other localities before.
\nHowever, events soon took an unexpected turn.
\nAt the end of July, reports began emerging that Russian assault troops had entered Pokrovsk \u2013 including the city center \u2013 as well as Rodinskoye, a small but strategically crucial town vital to the defense of both Pokrovsk and Mirnograd to the north. Yet full encirclement was still a way off: at least two paved roads remained firmly under Ukrainian control.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 RT \/ Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru <\/p>\n
Ten days later, reports surfaced of an unprecedented Russian breakthrough toward Zolotoy Kolodez\u00a0and the Kramatorsk\u2013Dobropolye highway. In just 24 hours, Russian forces advanced some 20km, tearing open a four- to five-kilometer-wide gap in the front \u2013 their fastest daily advance since the early days of the Russian military operation\u00a0in February\u2013March 2022.
\nThis rapid push toward Dobropolye, followed by intense counterattacks, briefly drew both Russian and Ukrainian attention away from Pokrovsk. The fighting in that direction quieted down for almost two months, as both sides regrouped and prepared for what came next.
\nOctober 2025: The encirclement
\nThe battles for Pokrovsk \u2013 along with the earlier breakthrough near Dobropolye \u2013 revealed yet another evolution in Russian tactics: small, mobile assault groups have become the main strike force on the battlefield. With FPV drones patrolling\u00a0the skies around the clock, traditional armored offensives are nearly impossible, and large concentrations of infantry without cover are easy targets for precision drone strikes.
\nAt the same time,\u00a0Ukrainian forces have grown visibly more exhausted than their Russian counterparts. In many areas, there is no longer a continuous front line. Even in critical sectors, Ukrainian defenses now consist of scattered strongpoints separated by open terrain monitored by drones. Analysts estimate that in this zone \u2013 where Russia\u2019s Central Group of Forces operates \u2013 there are now between three and six Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 RT \/ Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru <\/p>\n
Russian assault teams exploit these gaps, quietly massing over hours or even days before launching sudden strikes on vulnerable points \u2013 destroying strongholds or forcing rapid retreats. The element of surprise, combined with flexible local coordination, allows Russia to achieve temporary superiority at key spots, neutralizing the enemy\u2019s drone advantage and enabling steady progress.
\nAs a result, Pokrovsk was almost fully captured by October. The area south of the railway line fell first, followed by the high-rise apartment blocks in the city\u2019s northern districts. By Saturday, only a few residential neighborhoods and the hospital near Tyulenev Street on the northeastern outskirts remained under\u00a0Ukrainian control.
\nBut what about the encirclement that President Putin announced in October \u2013 the one Ukrainian officials insist doesn\u2019t exist?<\/p>\n
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To the east of Pokrovsk lies Mirnograd, which is defended by two Ukrainian brigades: the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade and the 38th Naval Infantry Brigade \u2013 both elite, battle-tested units. Estimates suggest between 2,000 and 5,000 Ukrainian troops are now trapped there.
\nUnlike Pokrovsk, Mirnograd sits in a lowland area \u2013 almost behind Pokrovsk from the Ukrainian side\u2019s perspective. All supply routes to the city run either through Pokrovsk itself or the small town of Rodinskoye to the north.
\nAccording to Lostarmour, the distance between the northern and southern prongs of the Russian advance is now just two kilometers. With the area under constant drone surveillance, it\u2019s safe to say that Mirnograd and its garrison have been effectively encircled for at least two weeks, unable to retreat or receive reinforcements. Supplies are reportedly being delivered by heavy R18 cargo drones, but even with minimal losses, that\u2019s nowhere near enough to sustain such a large force.
\nNovember 2025: A new take on Operation Winter Storm
\nThe Ukrainian side isn\u2019t standing still. Having missed the chance to withdraw its garrison in time, Kiev is now trying to counterattack \u2013 hoping to break through to Mirnograd and extract its trapped forces. The situation echoes Operation Winter Storm, when Manstein\u2019s tanks tried to rescue the encircled Sixth Army at Stalingrad, only to be repelled by the Red Army and forced to abandon the plan.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a0 RT \/ Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru <\/p>\n
The most dramatic \u2013 and arguably most futile \u2013 episode came on November 1, when Ukraine\u2019s Main Directorate of Intelligence launched an airborne raid on the western edge of Pokrovsk. Two helicopters managed to escape, but the special forces they dropped off were quickly hunted down among the ruins and destroyed by FPV drones.
\nHeavier fighting continues on the northern flank of the encirclement. For several weeks, Ukrainian troops have been throwing everything they have into attacks \u2013 first toward the Dobropolye salient, and later directly toward Mirnograd. Here, the Ukrainian forces\u00a0are once again using armored vehicles \u2013 a rarity these days \u2013 but despite massing significant forces and suffering heavy losses, they\u2019ve failed to advance beyond Rodninskoye.<\/p>\n
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The Ukrainian units in this area are a patchwork of assorted battalions and ad hoc formations. The 425th Assault Regiment remains one of the few structured combat groups, while the rest have been pieced together, as the saying goes, on a \u201cmany a little makes a mickle\u201d basis.
\nThis precarious situation stems directly from Kiev\u2019s political decisions. Throughout the year, Zelensky has been assuring his European backers and Donald Trump that the \u201cRussian hordes\u201d\u00a0could be held off indefinitely. Now he cannot afford a major defeat that might turn into a strategic catastrophe. That\u2019s why he\u2019s once again ordered his commanders to defend the so-called \u201cPokrovsk fortress\u201d at any cost \u2013 forcing General Syrsky to spend what may be the last of his reserves on repeated counterattacks.
\nWith Pokrovsk nearly taken and Mirnograd on the brink of collapse, the best the Ukrainian command can hope for now is to evacuate the elite brigades trapped inside.
\nThe Russian army\u2019s objective, however, is to prevent exactly that \u2013 to wear down the attacking forces and either destroy or capture the Mirnograd garrison. Should that happen, Ukraine will likely be unable to establish a new defensive line east of Pokrovsk. The front would inevitably shift westward \u2013 toward the Dnieper River.
\nAs things stand, the decisive battle of 2025 has entered its critical phase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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