As the US stays fixated on Ukraine, Russia and Iran are quietly shaping the next security order in the region<\/p>\n
Last week, a series of high-profile events \u2013 including a phone call between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump and the visit of Syria\u2019s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa to Moscow \u2013 nearly overshadowed another meeting with far-reaching implications: the official visit to Moscow of Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council.
\nLarijani\u2019s talks with Putin covered everything from energy and trade to regional crises. Yet what made the trip extraordinary was not the agenda, but\u00a0the message. The Iranian envoy arrived carrying a personal letter from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a gesture that underscored the level of political trust between Moscow and Tehran and signaled that the two powers are deepening a long-term strategic dialogue despite mounting Western pressure.
\nThis was Larijani\u2019s second visit to Russia this year, following his July trip shortly after the 12-day Iran\u2013Israel war. At that time, Tehran was eager to present its regional assessment and discuss the growing tensions around its nuclear program. Moscow, in turn, offered to help stabilize the situation and revive diplomatic channels. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov even reaffirmed Russia\u2019s readiness to facilitate the revival of the nuclear deal and resume the export of enriched uranium for peaceful purposes.
\nFor Washington, Iran remains a top strategic concern. Despite the Biden administration\u2019s (and now Trump\u2019s) focus on Ukraine and Gaza, the US cannot guarantee Israel\u2019s security without addressing what it views as the \u201cIran problem.\u201d In the eyes of American policymakers, a nuclear-armed Iran would upend the regional balance and unsettle Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE \u2013 all wary of Tehran\u2019s growing influence among Shiite communities in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.<\/p>\n
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Tensions spiked again after reports that Tehran was negotiating to purchase Russian fighter jets \u2013 a move that could mark a new phase in defense cooperation. For Washington and West Jerusalem, such contracts are more than just arms deals; they are proof that the Moscow\u2013Tehran partnership is evolving into something much deeper than tactical alignment. What\u2019s taking shape is a new framework for regional security \u2013 one that places Iran as both a strategic ally and an essential node in Russia\u2019s expanding Middle Eastern network.
\nThe American side is expected to raise these concerns at the\u00a0proposed Putin\u2013Trump summit in Budapest. Ukraine will remain a central topic, but Washington\u2019s unease about Russia\u2019s growing Middle Eastern footprint is likely to surface as well. For the US, the region remains a vital geopolitical theater \u2013 and it now fears losing the initiative there.
\nLarijani\u2019s visit, coming right after al-Sharaa\u2019s, was\u00a0no coincidence. Moscow is signaling that it intends to anchor itself as the principal mediator among the region\u2019s rival powers. The Syrian president\u2019s visit reaffirmed that Damascus has no plans to distance itself from Russia; on the contrary, it seeks deeper cooperation, particularly in rebuilding infrastructure and maintaining stability. Russian military bases in Syria remain key deterrents against external interference.
\nIran\u2019s situation is more complex. The change of leadership in Damascus has cooled relations with Tehran, largely due to Iranian overreach in Syrian domestic affairs and the new government\u2019s attempts to balance its foreign policy. This is where Moscow steps in \u2013 uniquely positioned to bridge the gap between its two partners. With strong political trust, established military channels, and a reputation as a pragmatic external actor, Russia could mediate a \u201creset\u201d between Damascus and Tehran based not on ideology but on shared regional interests.
\nTehran, for its part, knows that the close alliance it once enjoyed with Syria won\u2019t return anytime soon. But neither side wants confrontation. Iran understands that keeping even minimal coordination with Damascus is crucial to maintaining its influence in the Levant \u2013 a key arena in the broader contest for regional security.<\/p>\n
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A new Iran-Israel war is just a matter of time<\/p>\n
The Israeli factor adds another layer. Despite Israel\u2019s continued airstrikes on Syrian border areas, the new Syrian leadership appears more pragmatic \u2013 less focused on rhetoric and more on rebuilding the country and securing stability. Meanwhile, Iran anticipates a \u201csecond round\u201d with Israel. Iranian media increasingly frames renewed escalation as inevitable, but this time under new conditions: with Tehran\u2019s improved missile arsenal and strengthened regional alliances, its confidence has visibly grown.
\nPresident Putin\u2019s recent remarks at the CIS summit in Dushanbe shed light on this dynamic. He revealed that Israel had sent a message to Iran through Moscow, expressing interest in avoiding further escalation. That episode illustrates Moscow\u2019s new role: not merely a participant, but the key communication channel among regional powers. It also shows that all major actors \u2013 from Tehran to West Jerusalem\u00a0\u2013 now see Russia as a trusted intermediary.
\nPutin likely briefed Larijani on these contacts, including his call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In doing so, Russia reinforced its position as both mediator and architect of an emerging multilateral format \u2013 one where Tehran, Damascus, and Tel Aviv could eventually negotiate a new regional balance through Moscow\u2019s good offices.
\nTaken together, the recent visits of al-Sharaa and Larijani \u2013 and the\u00a0likely Putin\u2013Trump meeting \u2013 mark the onset of a new geopolitical phase. The Middle East, once again, is becoming the arena where the future of global power is decided. Despite US rhetoric about \u201cprioritizing Europe,\u201d Washington knows that strategic leadership in the twenty-first century is being determined in the region.
\nFor Tehran, the lesson is clear: partnership with Moscow is not a matter of convenience, but of strategy. Iran understands that without Russia, it would struggle to maintain regional stability or resist mounting Western pressure. Its participation in frameworks such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union reflects a pragmatic pivot \u2013 one aimed at integration, diversification, and resilience, not confrontation.
\nGone are the days of ideological maximalism. Iran\u2019s foreign policy today is guided by a clear logic: survive, adapt, and expand influence through diplomacy, not defiance. In that sense, its growing alignment with Moscow is more than an alliance of necessity \u2013 it\u2019s a calculated bet on a multipolar future in which Russia and Iran emerge not as outliers, but as anchors of a new Eurasian order.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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